Articles and opinion on geopolitics and power games in the middle east and elsewhere.

Friday, January 28, 2005

Sudan, Genocide and China

Sorry to the rare few you’s who actually read this blog! I haven't written for a while. Two stories are of interest to me right now.
1- Sudan, Genocide & China.
2- The vampires in the white house. Seriously. Check out Bush's and Condoleezza's teeth.
But anyway I'll stick to the China story for now.

There's a book called: "A Problem from Hell: America and the Age of Genocide” that claims American politicians avoid the subject of ongoing genocides because speaking out may cause unexpected backlash, and issues. Bush decided to stand against the Sudanese genocide by making relevant and noticeable accusations to the Arab regime in Sudan. Why?

Once, western oil companies were pleased to do business in Sudan, which lacked the means of exploiting its oil fields. But this was before civil warring, genocide, and backing of international terrorism. China doesn't care about all this; its oil installations there are protected by the Sudanese army. And even if it wanted to care, it wouldn't, because of its increased need on imported oil.

China's exports and its domestic market are booming; free trade agreements are finally coming into force. Now more than ever, more manufactured consumer products are from China. And it no longer produces only shabby, cheap stuff either; it now also produces decent, cheap stuff.

Sudan is ethnically divided into 600 groups, but we’ll stick to [obviously Muslim] Arabs, and Christian and Animist Blacks. The latter are persecuted by the Arabs who control the government. There is a rebellion aimed at enabling Blacks to have some power. The oil there is worth 16$billion, a lot of it in Southern Sudan. The government is obviously more than enthusiastic about getting it in barrels and out of the country. China is doing a fair bit of the job.

But Sudan is also the only regime that has been intimate with terrorism and Osama Bin Laden, and didn't get a war for it: this might be used as an excuse in the future, should war be waged.

It is also the leading producer of the best natural gum arabic. Many cosmetics, and even many processed foods have gum arabic in it. It's a valuable resource, used to alter and stabilize appearance of cosmetics. Not just any gum will do. Female Caucasian ‘visages’ will not tolerate an inconsistent beautifying, age-reversing cream. It must be perfect. Why, it wouldn't be worth 199 bucks if it weren't!
In a first phase, US sanctions effectively punished American companies buying this gum, yet total sales in Sudan didn't decrease. Perhaps because other companies bought it, while Americans were stuck with worse, often synthetic gums. Wrinkles of anger appeared on American CEO’s faces promptly.

Because of oil, Sudan is now almost guaranteed billions of dollars. This doesn't mean things will get better. Military spending [on Chinese-made weapons] and other expenditures reinforce the government's power there. One might wonder: if peace comes tomorrow, it will be a good thing, and hopefully the income from oil will be shared with the persecuted black southerners of Sudan?
The Southerners believe rightly that they have seen so much killing and persecution because of oil. Without oil under their feet, they might have been miserable. But because of oil, they not only are miserable, they are also persecuted. Given a choice, I'd untick the "persecuted" box. If after all these years, the Black Sudanese have a say about the Chinese, their guns and helicopters, they will most likely show them out of Sudan. And invite, instead, who knows, the ‘kind’ Americans.

So China has most to lose when peace comes to Sudan. The later it comes, the weaker the Black man's stake in any deal, the weaker his ability to show the Chinese the door. The quicker the peace, the quicker the invitation to Americans. I have to say, there are limits to appropriateness of doing business with a country that commits genocide. Especially when it involves selling them weapons.

China's also doing business in Angola and Iran, but those are different stories.

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